Comparison of the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of ACAM2000, MVA, and vectored subunit vaccines for Mpox in rhesus macaques.

The 2022-2023 mpox outbreak triggered vaccination efforts using smallpox vaccines that were approved for mpox, including modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA; JYNNEOS), which is a safer alternative to live replicating vaccinia virus (ACAM2000). Here, we compare the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of JYNNEOS by the subcutaneous or intradermal routes, ACAM2000 by the percutaneous route, and subunit Ad35 vector-based L1R/B5R or L1R/B5R/A27L/A33R vaccines by the intramuscular route in rhesus macaques. All vaccines provided robust protection against high-dose intravenous mpox virus challenge with the current outbreak strain, with ACAM2000 providing near complete protection and JYNNEOS and Ad35 vaccines providing robust but incomplete protection. Protection correlated with neutralizing antibody responses as well as L1R/M1R- and B5R/B6R-specific binding antibody responses, although additional immune responses likely also contributed to protection. This study demonstrates the protective efficacy of multiple vaccine platforms against mpox virus challenge, including both current clinical vaccines and vectored subunit vaccines.

Engineering tumor-colonizing E. coli Nissle 1917 for detection and treatment of colorectal neoplasia.

Bioengineered probiotics enable new opportunities to improve colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, prevention and treatment. Here, first, we demonstrate selective colonization of colorectal adenomas after oral delivery of probiotic E. coli Nissle 1917 (EcN) to a genetically-engineered murine model of CRC predisposition and orthotopic models of CRC. We next undertake an interventional, double-blind, dual-centre, prospective clinical trial, in which CRC patients take either placebo or EcN for two weeks prior to resection of neoplastic and adjacent normal colorectal tissue (ACTRN12619000210178). We detect enrichment of EcN in tumor samples over normal tissue from probiotic-treated patients (primary outcome of the trial). Next, we develop early CRC intervention strategies. To detect lesions, we engineer EcN to produce a small molecule, salicylate. Oral delivery of this strain results in increased levels of salicylate in the urine of adenoma-bearing mice, in comparison to healthy controls. To assess therapeutic potential, we engineer EcN to locally release a cytokine, GM-CSF, and blocking nanobodies against PD-L1 and CTLA-4 at the neoplastic site, and demonstrate that oral delivery of this strain reduces adenoma burden by ~50%. Together, these results support the use of EcN as an orally-deliverable platform to detect disease and treat CRC through the production of screening and therapeutic molecules.

Cortico-basal ganglia white matter microstructure is linked to restricted repetitive behavior in autism spectrum disorder.

BACKGROUND: Restricted repetitive behavior (RRB) is one of two behavioral domains required for the diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Neuroimaging is widely used to study brain alterations associated with ASD and the domain of social and communication deficits, but there has been less work regarding brain alterations linked to RRB. METHODS: We utilized neuroimaging data from the National Institute of Mental Health Data Archive to assess basal ganglia and cerebellum structure in a cohort of children and adolescents with ASD compared to typically developing (TD) controls. We evaluated regional gray matter volumes from T1-weighted anatomical scans and assessed diffusion-weighted scans to quantify white matter microstructure with free-water imaging. We also investigated the interaction of biological sex and ASD diagnosis on these measures, and their correlation with clinical scales of RRB. RESULTS: Individuals with ASD had significantly lower free-water corrected fractional anisotropy (FAT) and higher free-water (FW) in cortico-basal ganglia white matter tracts. These microstructural differences did not interact with biological sex. Moreover, both FAT and FW in basal ganglia white matter tracts significantly correlated with measures of RRB. In contrast, we found no significant difference in basal ganglia or cerebellar gray matter volumes. LIMITATIONS: The basal ganglia and cerebellar regions in this study were selected due to their hypothesized relevance to RRB. Differences between ASD and TD individuals that may occur outside the basal ganglia and cerebellum, and their potential relationship to RRB, were not evaluated. CONCLUSIONS: These new findings demonstrate that cortico-basal ganglia white matter microstructure is altered in ASD and linked to RRB. FW in cortico-basal ganglia and intra-basal ganglia white matter was more sensitive to group differences in ASD, whereas cortico-basal ganglia FAT was more closely linked to RRB. In contrast, basal ganglia and cerebellar volumes did not differ in ASD. There was no interaction between ASD diagnosis and sex-related differences in brain structure. Future diffusion imaging investigations in ASD may benefit from free-water estimation and correction in order to better understand how white matter is affected in ASD, and how such measures are linked to RRB.

Vaccine induction of CD4-mimicking HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibody precursors in macaques.

The CD4-binding site (CD4bs) is a conserved epitope on HIV-1 envelope (Env) that can be targeted by protective broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs). HIV-1 vaccines have not elicited CD4bs bnAbs for many reasons, including the occlusion of CD4bs by glycans, expansion of appropriate naive B cells with immunogens, and selection of functional antibody mutations. Here, we demonstrate that immunization of macaques with a CD4bs-targeting immunogen elicits neutralizing bnAb precursors with structural and genetic features of CD4-mimicking bnAbs. Structures of the CD4bs nAb bound to HIV-1 Env demonstrated binding angles and heavy-chain interactions characteristic of all known human CD4-mimicking bnAbs. Macaque nAb were derived from variable and joining gene segments orthologous to the genes of human VH1-46-class bnAb. This vaccine study initiated in primates the B cells from which CD4bs bnAbs can derive, accomplishing the key first step in the development of an effective HIV-1 vaccine.

BIPOC experiences of (anti-)racist patient engagement in adolescent and young adult oncology research: an electronic Delphi study.

Aims: To characterize Black, Indigenous and People of Color (BIPOC) adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer patients' experiences of patient engagement in AYA oncology and derive best practices that are co-developed by BIPOC AYAs and oncology professionals. Materials & methods: Following a previous call to action from AYA oncology professionals, a panel of experts composed exclusively of BIPOC AYA cancer patients (n = 32) participated in an electronic Delphi study. Results: Emergent themes described BIPOC AYA cancer patients' direct experiences and consensus opinion on recommendations to advance antiracist patient engagement from BIPOC AYA cancer patients and oncology professionals. Conclusion: The findings reveal high-priority practices across all phases of research and are instructional for advancing health equity.

Regular Medications in the Emergency Department Short Stay Unit (ReMedIES): Can Prescribing be Improved Without Increasing Resources?

Background: Hospital medication errors are frequent and may result in adverse events. Data on non-prescription of regular medications to emergency department short stay unit patients is lacking. In response to local reports of regular medication omissions, a multi-disciplinary team was tasked to introduce corrective emergency department (ED) process changes, but with no additional financing or resources. Aim: To reduce the rate of non-prescription of regular medications for patients admitted to the ED Short Stay Unit (SSU), through process change within existing resource constraints. Methods: A pre- and post-intervention observational study compared regular medication omission rates for patients admitted to the ED SSU. Included patients were those who usually took regular home medications at 08:00 or 20:00. Omissions were classified as clinically significant medications (CSMs) or non-clinically significant medications (non-CSMs). The intervention included reinforcement that the initially treating acute ED doctor was responsible for prescription completion, formal checking of prescription presence at SSU handover rounds, double-checking of prescription completeness by the overnight SSU lead nurse and junior doctor, and ED pharmacist medication reconciliation for those still identified as having regular medication non-prescription at 07:30. Results: For the 110 and 106 patients in the pre- and post-intervention periods, there was a non-significant reduction in the CSM omission rate of -11% (95% CI: -23 to 2), from 41% (95% CI: 32-50) to 30% (95% CI: 21-39). Conclusion: Non-prescription of regular CSMs for SSU patients was not significantly reduced by institution of work practice changes within existing resource constraints.

Simultaneous estimation of the temporal and spatial extent of animal migration using step lengths and turning angles.

BACKGROUND: Animals of many different species, trophic levels, and life history strategies migrate, and the improvement of animal tracking technology allows ecologists to collect increasing amounts of detailed data on these movements. Understanding when animals migrate is important for managing their populations, but is still difficult despite modelling advancements. METHODS: We designed a model that parametrically estimates the timing of migration from animal tracking data. Our model identifies the beginning and end of migratory movements as signaled by change-points in step length and turning angle distributions. To this end, we can also use the model to estimate how an animal's movement changes when it begins migrating. In addition to a thorough simulation analysis, we tested our model on three datasets: migratory ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) in the Great Plains, barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) in northern Canada, and non-migratory brown bears (Ursus arctos) from the Canadian Arctic. RESULTS: Our simulation analysis suggests that our model is most useful for datasets where an increase in movement speed or directional autocorrelation is clearly detectable. We estimated the beginning and end of migration in caribou and hawks to the nearest day, while confirming a lack of migratory behaviour in the brown bears. In addition to estimating when caribou and ferruginous hawks migrated, our model also identified differences in how they migrated; ferruginous hawks achieved efficient migrations by drastically increasing their movement rates while caribou migration was achieved through significant increases in directional persistence. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach is applicable to many animal movement studies and includes parameters that can facilitate comparison between different species or datasets. We hope that rigorous assessment of migration metrics will aid understanding of both how and why animals move.

Health Insurance Literacy Improvements Among Recently Diagnosed Adolescents and Young Adults With Cancer: Results From a Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial.

PURPOSE: Adolescents and young adults (AYAs; age 18-39 years) with cancer report needing support with health insurance. We conducted a pilot randomized controlled trial to assess the feasibility and acceptability of a virtual health insurance navigation intervention (HIAYA CHAT) to improve health insurance literacy (HIL), awareness of Affordable Care Act (ACA) protections, financial toxicity, and stress. MATERIALS AND METHODS: HIAYA CHAT is a four-session navigator delivered program; it includes psychoeducation on insurance, navigating one's plan, insurance-related laws, and managing costs. Participants were eligible if they could access an internet-capable device, were <1 year from diagnosis, and received treatment from University of Utah Healthcare or Intermountain Health systems. We assessed the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of HIAYA CHAT compared with usual navigation care, including HIL (nine items), insurance knowledge (13 items), ACA protections (eight items), COmprehensive Score for financial Toxicity (COST; 11 items), and Perceived Stress Scale (PSS; four items), using t tests and Cohen's d. RESULTS: From November 2020 to December 2021, N = 86 AYAs enrolled (44.6% participation) and 89.3% completed the 5-month follow-up survey; 68.6% were female, 72.1% were White, 23.3% were Hispanic, 65.1% were age 26-39 years, and 87.2% were privately insured. Of intervention participants (n = 45), 67.4% completed all four sessions; among an exit interview subset (n = 10), all endorsed the program (100%). At follow-up, compared with usual navigation care, intervention participants had greater improvements in HIL, insurance and ACA protections knowledge, and PSS; effect sizes ranged from moderate to large (0.42-0.77). COST did not differ. CONCLUSION: The results support the feasibility and acceptability of HIAYA CHAT with related improvements in HIL.

SARS-CoV-2 mucosal vaccine protects against clinical disease with sex bias in efficacy.

Intranasal mucosal vaccines can more effectively induce mucosal immune responses against SARS-CoV-2. Here, we show in hamsters that an intranasal subunit mucosal vaccine boost with the beta variant S1 can prevent weight loss, in addition to reducing viral load, which cannot be studied in macaques that don't develop COVID-like disease. Protective efficacy against both viral load and weight loss correlated with serum antibody titers. A sex bias was detected in that immune responses and protection against viral load were greater in females than males. We also found that priming with S1 from the Wuhan strain elicited lower humoral immune responses against beta variant and led to less protection against beta viral challenge, suggesting the importance of matched antigens. The greater efficacy of mucosal vaccines in the upper respiratory tract and the need to consider sex differences in vaccine protection are important in the development of future improved COVID-19 vaccines.

Mucosal boosting enhances vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 in macaques.

A limitation of current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is that they provide minimal protection against infection with current Omicron subvariants1,2, although they still provide protection against severe disease. Enhanced mucosal immunity may be required to block infection and onward transmission. Intranasal administration of current vaccines has proven inconsistent3-7, suggesting that alternative immunization strategies may be required. Here we show that intratracheal boosting with a bivalent Ad26-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine results in substantial induction of mucosal humoral and cellular immunity and near-complete protection against SARS-CoV-2 BQ.1.1 challenge. A total of 40 previously immunized rhesus macaques were boosted with a bivalent Ad26 vaccine by the intramuscular, intranasal and intratracheal routes, or with a bivalent mRNA vaccine by the intranasal route. Ad26 boosting by the intratracheal route led to a substantial expansion of mucosal neutralizing antibodies, IgG and IgA binding antibodies, and CD8+ and CD4+ T cell responses, which exceeded those induced by Ad26 boosting by the intramuscular and intranasal routes. Intratracheal Ad26 boosting also led to robust upregulation of cytokine, natural killer, and T and B cell pathways in the lungs. After challenge with a high dose of SARS-CoV-2 BQ.1.1, intratracheal Ad26 boosting provided near-complete protection, whereas the other boosting strategies proved less effective. Protective efficacy correlated best with mucosal humoral and cellular immune responses. These data demonstrate that these immunization strategies induce robust mucosal immunity, suggesting the feasibility of developing vaccines that block respiratory viral infections.

Durable immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in both lower and upper airways achieved with a gorilla adenovirus (GRAd) S-2P vaccine in non-human primates.

SARS-CoV-2 continues to pose a global threat, and current vaccines, while effective against severe illness, fall short in preventing transmission. To address this challenge, there's a need for vaccines that induce mucosal immunity and can rapidly control the virus. In this study, we demonstrate that a single immunization with a novel gorilla adenovirus-based vaccine (GRAd) carrying the pre-fusion stabilized Spike protein (S-2P) in non-human primates provided protective immunity for over one year against the BA.5 variant of SARS-CoV-2. A prime-boost regimen using GRAd followed by adjuvanted S-2P (GRAd+S-2P) accelerated viral clearance in both the lower and upper airways. GRAd delivered via aerosol (GRAd(AE)+S-2P) modestly improved protection compared to its matched intramuscular regimen, but showed dramatically superior boosting by mRNA and, importantly, total virus clearance in the upper airway by day 4 post infection. GrAd vaccination regimens elicited robust and durable systemic and mucosal antibody responses to multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants, but only GRAd(AE)+S-2P generated long-lasting T cell responses in the lung. This research underscores the flexibility of the GRAd vaccine platform to provide durable immunity against SARS-CoV-2 in both the lower and upper airways.

Mucosal Adenoviral-vectored Vaccine Boosting Durably Prevents XBB.1.16 Infection in Nonhuman Primates.

Waning immunity and continued virus evolution have limited the durability of protection from symptomatic infection mediated by intramuscularly (IM)-delivered mRNA vaccines against COVID-19 although protection from severe disease remains high. Mucosal vaccination has been proposed as a strategy to increase protection at the site of SARS-CoV-2 infection by enhancing airway immunity, potentially reducing rates of infection and transmission. Here, we compared protection against XBB.1.16 virus challenge 5 months following IM or mucosal boosting in non-human primates (NHP) that had previously received a two-dose mRNA-1273 primary vaccine regimen. The mucosal boost was composed of a bivalent chimpanzee adenoviral-vectored vaccine encoding for both SARS-CoV-2 WA1 and BA.5 spike proteins (ChAd-SARS-CoV-2-S) and delivered either by an intranasal mist or an inhaled aerosol. An additional group of animals was boosted by the IM route with bivalent WA1/BA.5 spike-matched mRNA (mRNA-1273.222) as a benchmark control. NHP were challenged in the upper and lower airways 18 weeks after boosting with XBB.1.16, a heterologous Omicron lineage strain. Cohorts boosted with ChAd-SARS-CoV-2-S by an aerosolized or intranasal route had low to undetectable virus replication as assessed by levels of subgenomic SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the lungs and nose, respectively. In contrast, animals that received the mRNA-1273.222 boost by the IM route showed minimal protection against virus replication in the upper airway but substantial reduction of virus RNA levels in the lower airway. Immune analysis showed that the mucosal vaccines elicited more durable antibody and T cell responses than the IM vaccine. Protection elicited by the aerosolized vaccine was associated with mucosal IgG and IgA responses, whereas protection elicited by intranasal delivery was mediated primarily by mucosal IgA. Thus, durable immunity and effective protection against a highly transmissible heterologous variant in both the upper and lower airways can be achieved by mucosal delivery of a virus-vectored vaccine. Our study provides a template for the development of mucosal vaccines that limit infection and transmission against respiratory pathogens.

Clinical characteristics, racial inequities, and outcomes in patients with breast cancer and COVID-19: A COVID-19 and cancer consortium (CCC19) cohort study.

Background: Limited information is available for patients with breast cancer (BC) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), especially among underrepresented racial/ethnic populations. Methods: This is a COVID-19 and Cancer Consortium (CCC19) registry-based retrospective cohort study of females with active or history of BC and laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection diagnosed between March 2020 and June 2021 in the US. Primary outcome was COVID-19 severity measured on a five-level ordinal scale, including none of the following complications, hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, and all-cause mortality. Multivariable ordinal logistic regression model identified characteristics associated with COVID-19 severity. Results: 1383 female patient records with BC and COVID-19 were included in the analysis, the median age was 61 years, and median follow-up was 90 days. Multivariable analysis revealed higher odds of COVID-19 severity for older age (aOR per decade, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.32-1.67]); Black patients (aOR 1.74; 95 CI 1.24-2.45), Asian Americans and Pacific Islander patients (aOR 3.40; 95 CI 1.70-6.79) and Other (aOR 2.97; 95 CI 1.71-5.17) racial/ethnic groups; worse ECOG performance status (ECOG PS ≥2: aOR, 7.78 [95% CI, 4.83-12.5]); pre-existing cardiovascular (aOR, 2.26 [95% CI, 1.63-3.15])/pulmonary comorbidities (aOR, 1.65 [95% CI, 1.20-2.29]); diabetes mellitus (aOR, 2.25 [95% CI, 1.66-3.04]); and active and progressing cancer (aOR, 12.5 [95% CI, 6.89-22.6]). Hispanic ethnicity, timing, and type of anti-cancer therapy modalities were not significantly associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. The total all-cause mortality and hospitalization rate for the entire cohort was 9% and 37%, respectively however, it varied according to the BC disease status. Conclusions: Using one of the largest registries on cancer and COVID-19, we identified patient and BC-related factors associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, underrepresented racial/ethnic patients experienced worse outcomes compared to non-Hispanic White patients. Funding: This study was partly supported by National Cancer Institute grant number P30 CA068485 to Tianyi Sun, Sanjay Mishra, Benjamin French, Jeremy L Warner; P30-CA046592 to Christopher R Friese; P30 CA023100 for Rana R McKay; P30-CA054174 for Pankil K Shah and Dimpy P Shah; KL2 TR002646 for Pankil Shah and the American Cancer Society and Hope Foundation for Cancer Research (MRSG-16-152-01-CCE) and P30-CA054174 for Dimpy P Shah. REDCap is developed and supported by Vanderbilt Institute for Clinical and Translational Research grant support (UL1 TR000445 from NCATS/NIH). The funding sources had no role in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. Clinical trial number: CCC19 registry is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04354701.

Host immunity associated with spontaneous suppression of viremia in therapy-naïve young rhesus macaques following neonatal SHIV infection.

IMPORTANCE: Despite the advent of highly active anti-retroviral therapy, people are still dying from HIV-related causes, many of whom are children, and a protective vaccine or cure is needed to end the HIV pandemic. Understanding the nature and activation states of immune cell subsets during infection will provide insights into the immunologic milieu associated with viremia suppression that can be harnessed via therapeutic strategies to achieve a functional cure, but these are understudied in pediatric subjects. We evaluated humoral and adaptive host immunity associated with suppression of viremia in rhesus macaques infected soon after birth with a pathogenic SHIV. The results from our study provide insights into the immune cell subsets and functions associated with viremia control in young macaques that may translate to pediatric subjects for the design of future anti-viral strategies in HIV-1-infected infants and children and contribute to an understudied area of HIV-1 pathogenesis in pediatric subjects.

Biomarker Testing Trends in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Who Live in Rural Areas and Urban Clusters in the US.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data on biomarker testing rates in rural populations with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). To assess biomarker testing practices, oncologists in rural areas and urban clusters in the US were surveyed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A web-based survey was administered to oncologists spending ≥40% of their time practicing in rural areas or urban clusters and who had treated ≥2 patients with stage IV mCRC in the prior month. RESULTS: Ninety-nine oncologists completed the quantitative survey and 17 the qualitative interview. Among respondents, 97% reported ordering biomarker tests. Oncologists reported testing for KRAS, NRAS, BRAF, HER2, and mismatch repair deficiency/microsatellite instability in 72%, 65%, 63%, 56%, and 66% of patients with metastatic disease, respectively. Forty-one percent reported performing reflex testing. The most cited testing barriers were lack of insurance coverage, insufficient tissue samples, and long turnaround times. CONCLUSION: Further assessment of rural testing practices is needed.

Systemic Therapy for Tumor Control in Metastatic Well-Differentiated Gastroenteropancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: ASCO Guideline.

PURPOSE: To develop recommendations for systemic therapy for well-differentiated grade 1 (G1) to grade 3 (G3) metastatic gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NETs). METHODS: ASCO convened an Expert Panel to conduct a systematic review of relevant studies and develop recommendations for clinical practice. RESULTS: Eight randomized controlled trials met the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. RECOMMENDATIONS: Somatostatin analogs (SSAs) are recommended as first-line systemic therapy for most patients with G1-grade 2 (G2) metastatic well-differentiated GI-NETs. Observation is an option for patients with low-volume or slow-growing disease without symptoms. After progression on SSAs, peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) is recommended as systematic therapy for patients with somatostatin receptor (SSTR)-positive tumors. Everolimus is an alternative second-line therapy, particularly in nonfunctioning NETs and patients with SSTR-negative tumors. SSAs are standard first-line therapy for SSTR-positive pancreatic (pan)NETs. Rarely, observation may be appropriate for asymptomatic patients until progression. Second-line systemic options for panNETs include PRRT (for SSTR-positive tumors), cytotoxic chemotherapy, everolimus, or sunitinib. For SSTR-negative tumors, first-line therapy options are chemotherapy, everolimus, or sunitinib. There are insufficient data to recommend particular sequencing of therapies. Patients with G1-G2 high-volume disease, relatively high Ki-67 index, and/or symptoms related to tumor growth may benefit from early cytotoxic chemotherapy. For G3 GEP-NETs, systemic options for G1-G2 may be considered, although cytotoxic chemotherapy is likely the most effective option for patients with tumor-related symptoms, and SSAs are relatively ineffective. Qualifying statements are provided to assist with treatment choice. Multidisciplinary team management is recommended, along with shared decision making with patients, incorporating their values and preferences, potential benefits and harms, and other characteristics and circumstances, such as comorbidities, performance status, geographic location, and access to care.Additional information is available at www.asco.org/gastrointestinal-cancer-guidelines.

Mpox infection protects against re-challenge in rhesus macaques.

The mpox outbreak of 2022-2023 involved rapid global spread in men who have sex with men. We infected 18 rhesus macaques with mpox by the intravenous, intradermal, and intrarectal routes and observed robust antibody and T cell responses following all three routes of infection. Numerous skin lesions and high plasma viral loads were observed following intravenous and intradermal infection. Skin lesions peaked on day 10 and resolved by day 28 following infection. On day 28, we re-challenged all convalescent and 3 naive animals with mpox. All convalescent animals were protected against re-challenge. Transcriptomic studies showed upregulation of innate and inflammatory responses and downregulation of collagen formation and extracellular matrix organization following challenge, as well as rapid activation of T cell and plasma cell responses following re-challenge. These data suggest key mechanistic insights into mpox pathogenesis and immunity. This macaque model should prove useful for evaluating mpox vaccines and therapeutics.

Coupling Mountain Pine Beetle and Forest Population Dynamics Predicts Transient Outbreaks that are Likely to Increase in Number with Climate Change.

Mountain pine beetle (MPB) in Canada have spread well beyond their historical range. Accurate modelling of the long-term dynamics of MPB is critical for assessing the risk of further expansion and informing management strategies, particularly in the context of climate change and variable forest resilience. Most previous models have focused on capturing a single outbreak without tree replacement. While these models are useful for understanding MPB biology and outbreak dynamics, they cannot accurately model long-term forest dynamics. Past models that incorporate forest growth tend to simplify beetle dynamics. We present a new model that couples forest growth to MPB population dynamics and accurately captures key aspects of MPB biology, including a threshold for the number of beetles needed to overcome tree defenses and beetle aggregation that facilitates mass attacks. These mechanisms lead to a demographic Allee effect, which is known to be important in beetle population dynamics. We show that as forest resilience decreases, a fold bifurcation emerges and there is a stable fixed point with a non-zero MPB population. We derive conditions for the existence of this equilibrium. We then simulate biologically relevant scenarios and show that the beetle population approaches this equilibrium with transient boom and bust cycles with period related to the time of forest recovery. As forest resilience decreases, the Allee threshold also decreases. Thus, if host resilience decreases under climate change, for example under increased stress from drought, then the lower Allee threshold makes transient outbreaks more likely to occur in the future.